Investigation 2 Reflection

1a. I personally use a tree diagram, which shows all the combinations and their relative probability in a series of branches and logic nodes. By multiplying together the fractions that follow a set of branches leading to a certain outcome, you get the theoretical probability of that outcome occurring.
1b.You have never tested to probability, so you can't say it's true probability. It's only a theory, since you haven't tried.
2a. Maybe yes, probably no. The theoretical best sample size in infinity, but they both obviously have not played the game an infinite number of times. If the sample size is not infinity, the experimental probability has a chance of being inaccurate- so no, they might not be.
2b. If they calculate properly, yes. Theoretical probability is just a theory, so you don't have to try an infinite number of times. This makes correctly calculating the probability possible.
2c. Ignoring the fact that the result might contaminated with human error, and the fact that someone might have magic powers and might just experiment an infinite number of times, maybe the will be the same, maybe not. The theoretical probability is accurate, but maybe the experimental probability isn't because of the inability to create the perfect sample size. It the two people are lucky, they might be the same. MIGHT.
3. That either sides desirable outcome has an equal chance of occurring.
4. A sample space is a table that shows all combinations possible between two event, thereby creating a fraction of outcomes to total squares.

RLA Feature Article

<Embed issues with video>
Video Transcript:

Firstly, I selected by background to put an idea of something truly pre-historic, because, at first glance, it might seem that this is an article on early civilization, but it is truly on the time before it. All the boxes of text and images follow the same basic idea- a light brown background with dark brown text. It's designed to look like ancient wall etchings.

Secondly, the font of the title and Sub-headings is designed to key into the background and text colour. Also, it appears more noticeable and surprisingly a lot softer and cleaner, as if it isn't just big text, it's an important part of my article.

The large table had some very specific design choices implemented into it. First, it explains what happened after the beginning of civilization, but it also joins with the hidden theme if how much humans were capable of even in ancient times- which is why the table is mainly just a name, a location, and the achievements that they gained. Sadly, the table was just a bit too big, and rammed into the text box. The rest of the features in the article had some open space containing background in between them and the rest of the article. This is why I coloured the table slightly different from the rest of the article.

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https://docs.google.com/a/sas.edu.sg/document/d/1waKZ-WJ1g7lRk6in1HaVFR1eF1dVNyWV_9V-c85emlI/edit

Investigation Four Reflection

1a1. When calculating coordinates for a theoretical destination several light years away, one has approximately, say, a one half chance of correctly calculating the coordinates. However, one also has to account for the fact that any information gained on a destination one hundred light years away will by one hundred years old, because it takes one hundred years for any light or radio waves to reach you. Since prediction of exactly where the destination has moved or changed over a hundred years is nearly impossible, one has only a one fourth chance of correctly calculating that.
1a2. You have only a 1/8 chance of correctly finding the coordinates. Imagine if you were in the future, and you were calculating a destination for FTL travel- you would only have a 1/8 chance of not being stranded in deep space with no way back.
1b1. You luckily made it to your destination, but you failed your prediction of what would happen to your destination over the last few years. The nearby binary star happened to run out of fuel, and gravity collapsed it into a supernova. Your only chance of escaping is to accelerate deep into the supernova and slingshot around its gravity field, potentially letting you escape. Sadly, supernovas are constantly changing, and so you only have a one fourth chance of predicting where the gravity field is, and even if you do you only have a one fifth chance that the supernova has a strong enough gravity to catapult you fast enough away, before you are incinerated.
1b2. You have an itty-bitty 1/20 chance of living. Poor you.
2a. To create an area model for the first event, you create a 10x10 grid. Then, you divide the first side into two equal sections- Success and Failure. Then, you divide the second side into four equal sides- three failure and one success. If you follow the lines from the sections, you can see that only one of the eight areas has an overlap of two success sections.
2b. A simulation is simply a physical (or digital) recreation of the event. They can be used several times to find an experimental probability of something.
3. If you line up all the results, and write down the number of times you would expect to them to occur. Then for each result, multiply the number of times they would occur by the point/token/coin/gain value that you would get if they occur. Then add all those numbers together, and divide by 100. You come up with the expected point/token/coin/gain value each time the event occurs.
4.Long-term is over several occurrences of an event- and expected value is technically the payout over several occurrences of the event.

Video Conversation Scene Script

Writer Names: Sebi, Lukas, Armaan

Actor Names:

1. Sebi

2. Lukas

Title of Video

INT. SHIP CABIN. ANY TIME

Sebi talks to Lukas about money.

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

Maintain your course, helmsman. The captain has requested I report to his office immediately.

ARMAAN THE HELMSMAN

Understood.

Lukas enters the office. Seby waves a scrap of paper in his face.

SEBY

It’s the final scrap of the map! Now I can find the lost treasure of Redbeard!

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

And I have another piece of bloody map that I have to piece together… why are we looking for the treasure of Mr. Soulless Ginger Pirate anyway?

SEBY

Because… of the adventure! Because it will be fun! Because we’re pirates and we love finding treasure!

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

...and because you want the cash.

SEBI

Well, I want cash too.

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

Lets Split the treasure 50 50, deal?

Sebi

No! I want at least 75%.

ARMAAN THE HELMSMAN

<Off Screen>

I want some too......

LUKAS/SEBY

NO WAY!

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

But I did all the work!

SEBI

But I’m the captain! Besides, If I get the treasure I get 75%, but if I die getting it you get 100%, deal?

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

(Evil Grin)

Oh, really, then…

Sebi

But if I die you won't have any treasure left. Cause you’re too scared to get it.

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

I AM AN ESSENTIAL PART OF THIS MISSION AND I CAN PROVE IT! Here, what do you see here?

SEBI

(Sighs)

Our Pirate ship?

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

I see a gigantic sinking disaster WAITING TO HAPPEN. And if you don’t have me onboard it will be a gigantic sinking disaster HAPPENING TO YOU.

Sebi

you just take 25%.

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

Well, I am very sorry, but I am underpaid and overworked, and you are going too far! I have to live as well! And there are quite a few pirate ships in need of a helpful deckhand who WILL PAY 50%! I have no choice but to resign.

SEBY

YOU GET ALL THE CASH YOU DESERVE IN THIS AGREEMENT!

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

DO YOU ACCEPT MY BLOODY RESIGNATION OR NOT?!

SEBY

I DO!

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

<pauses>. All right. Thank you.

SEBY

(sighs)

You’re not actually doing this to me, are you?

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

I definitely am. And by official record, I never fully sent the SS Phoenix to you, as described in our official employment contract. I am withdrawing my ship from our contract. You are now on my territory, and I am ordering you off immediately.

SEBY

You’re kidding, right?

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

I am abandoning you on this island. The Phoenix leaves at dawn. You have until then to re-instate my employment.

SEBY

Seriously? 50 50?

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

Well… actually… I think I’ll be taking… mmm… 75. At least.

SEBY

THAT WAS NOT THE AGREEMENT!

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

I am altering the agreement. Pray I do not alter it any further.

Pulls out flintlock pistol and fires. Smoke comes out of the pistol, but Lukas is not harmed.

Seby

(extreme rage)

What in blazes?

Grabs pistol from seby’s hand and throws it into the sea.

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

I took the liberty of confiscating the gunpowder storage in our armory. However, my sidearm is loaded

SEBY

(throws punch at Lukas)

BASTARD! CHEATING SCOUNDREL!

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

Well, maybe I’m feeling generous. Have your map. Perhaps I will be seeing you again, if I happen to end in Davy Jones Locker as well.

SEBY

WEASEL! LYING WEASEL!

LUKAS THE DECKHAND

GET OFF MY SHIP!

SEBY
GLADLY! I HOPE I CAN SEE YOUR FACE WHEN I DRAG HOME THE TREASURE!

2.2 Choosing Marbles Spinner Design!

• Take a screenshot of your final spinner and put it in your post.
• 
• How did you decide how to design your spinner?
• The first three statements told me the proportions of the three colours, so I could set them up. The last statement made it possible for blue to occur, so blue had to have an three on it to make blue and three be possible. And the fourth statement encompassed the entire spinner- all colours have to have an odd number, except red. So I decided red might as well be even.
• How did you confirm that your spinner design met the criteria?
• All statements are true, since I used them to create the spinner. They should be correct both ways, but the top paragraph explains how I fulfilled all of them.
• Is there more than one acceptable spinner design?  If so, what will the spinners have in common?  What will be different? 
• Red could have been and odd number. It would still fulfill statement four. Or, if you really thought out of the box, you could say red was both even and odd, by writing two numbers. It is possible.
  
  
  
  
  
  

What do You Expect? Investigation 1

1. Experimental probability is a probability that you have tested. You can't be certain the probability is accurate, as you can never conduct an infinite number of tests, but by rolling a dice fifty times you are probably going to be more accurate with your probabilities than if you took a guess. Conducting the tests (trials) is easy- just repeatedly take the chance, write down your results, and make an average for the chance of the result occurring.

2. 500 is more accurate. Let's say you have a coin that you flip. If you did the test thirty times, you might get anywhere from twenty eight heads to three heads and thereby have an inaccurate result. But if you did the test five hundred times there is a much lower chance of an outlier occurring as there are more flips that can correct a twenty eight heads streak, and turn the chance back toward fifty percent.

3. There are two meanings- if a result has a fifty percent chance of occurring, you could say it is equally likely (to happen and not to happen). But you could also say that if you had a three sided dice (if that was possible), with 1, 2, and 3, then 1 and 2 would also be equally likely to occur- because they both have a 33.3% chance of occurring. Equally likely to occur.